![]() ![]() Several studies argue that China’s economy could soon slow considerably. ![]() On the one hand, it is well accepted that double-digit growth is a thing of the past and that China faces considerable downside economic risks, including that reform might be stalling and that brewing financial fragilities could eventually trigger a crisis. China’s economic prospects are therefore a topic of intense debate. To an end, giving way to a new era of geostrategic rivalry that looks set to define international relations and global politics for decades.Ĭhina’s ongoing rise will clearly carry enormous implications for both the country itself and the rest of the world. Geopolitically, China’s rise has brought America’s ”unipolar moment” It accounts for almost a fifth of global production and more than a quarter of world carbon emissions. ![]() China is now the largest economy in the world at purchasing power parity, which corrects for price differences across countries, and the second largest at market exchange rates. China’s economic transformation means there are around 800 million fewer Chinese citizens living in poverty today than would otherwise be the case.Ĭhina’s rise has also reshaped the global economy, planetary ecosystem, and world politics. The rise of China is amongst the most globally significant developments of recent decades. But it would never establish a meaningful lead over the United States and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person than America, even by mid-century. China would still likely become the world’s largest economy. With 2–3% growth, China’s future looks very different. If China were on track to grow at 4–5% a year to 2050, as many seem to hold, it follows that China would be on course to become the world’s most dominant economy by far. Expectations regarding the rise of China should be substantially revised down compared to most existing economic studies and especially the expectations of those assessing the broader implications of China’s rise for global politics. Our projections imply a vastly different future compared to the dominant narrative of China’s ongoing global rise. China also faces considerable downside risks. However, we also show that the prospect of doing so is well beyond China’s track record in delivering productivity-enhancing reform, and therefore well beyond its likely trajectory. Growing faster, up to say 5% a year to 2050, is notionally possible given China remains well below the global productivity frontier. Even assuming continued broad policy success, our projections suggest growth will slow sharply to roughly 3% a year by 2030 and 2–3% a year on average over the three decades to 2050. Nonetheless, we show that substantial long-term growth deceleration is the likely future for China given the legacy effects of its uniquely draconian past population policies, reliance on investment-driven growth, and slowing productivity growth. Predicting long-term economic performance is inherently difficult and open to debate. Although this post recommended the best countries for international expansion for 2022, we can help businesses expand into any country.The future of China’s ongoing global rise is of great importance to both China and the rest of the world. The outsourcing services we provide simplify day-to-day operations for our clients so they can free up time and resources to focus on their core competencies. Our experienced global teams understand the complexities of operating across multiple countries and help our clients effectively navigate the nuances of local laws and regulations in every jurisdiction of operation. For over two decades, we have supplied public, private, and nonprofit organizations of all sizes with integrated growth solutions. ![]() Are you considering the best countries for international expansion but not sure where to start? Have you wondered if setting up a legal entity or using a PEO would be better for your business? Global PEO Services, a Safeguard company, provides support throughout the entire business lifecycle, offering staffing, incorporation, PEO/EOR, accounting, HR, payroll, compliance, and M&A services in 170+ countries. ![]()
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